The BP Energy Outlook 2035 outlines that global energy consumption is expected to rise by 41% from 2012 to 2035, compared to 55% over the last 23 years, and 30% over the last ten.Â
Demand will continue to increase at an average of 1.5%/y to 2035. Growth is expected to moderate over this period, climbing at an average of 2%/y to 2020 and then by only 1.2%/y to 2035. 95% of this growth is expected to come from non-OECD countries, with China and India accounting for more than half of the rise. By 2035, energy use in the non-OECD economies is expected to be 69% higher than in 2012. In comparison, use in OECD countries will have grown by only 5%, and actually have fallen after 2030.
BP Group Executive, Bob Dudley, said: º£½Ç³Ô¹ÏÍø˜The Outlook leads us to three big questions: Is there enough energy to meet growing demand? Can we meet demand reliably? And what are the consequences of meeting demand? In other words, is the supply sufficient, secure and sustainable?
º£½Ç³Ô¹ÏÍø˜On the first question, our answer is a resounding º£½Ç³Ô¹ÏÍø˜yesº£½Ç³Ô¹ÏÍø™. The growth rate for global demand is slower than what we have seen in previous decades, largely as a result of increasing energy efficiency. Trends in global technology, investment and policy leave us confident that production will be able to keep pace.º£½Ç³Ô¹ÏÍø™
On the question of security, the Outlook offers a mixed, though broadly positive, view. The US is on the path to energy self-sufficiency and will produce 101% of its energy needs by 2035. Meanwhile, import dependence in Europe, China and India will increase. Asia is expected to become the dominant energy importing region. Dudley noted that: º£½Ç³Ô¹ÏÍø˜This need not be a cause for concern if the market is allowed to do its work, with new supply chains opening up to these big consuming regionsº£½Ç³Ô¹ÏÍø™.
On the question of sustainability, the outlook notes some positive signs. Emissions growth is expected to slow as natural gas and renewables gain market share from coal and oil; and emissions are expected to decline in Europe and the US.
See also for a summary of key findings.
Adapted from a press release by .